On Wednesday, 28 January, the National Statistics Institute (INE) presented the results of the Population Estimates and Projections, base year 2024. These results include updated figures for the country's resident population for the period 1992–2024 and the projected population for 2070. Figures are available at the national level by sex and age as are the main demographic indicators for the period.

Estimates and projections of population size and structure are based on historical dynamics and hypotheses of the future evolution of three demographic components: fertility, mortality, and migration.

Thus, Chile's population is expected to reach 20,150,948 by June 2026, peaking at 20,643,490 in the same month of 2035. However, starting in 2036, the population is projected to stop growing and begin a gradual decline to 16,972,558 inhabitants by mid-2070. This decline will be influenced by the continued fall in fertility and the rise in life expectancy, which will lead to projected deaths to exceed projected births starting in 2028.

Fertility below replacement level

According to the analyzed assumptions, fertility is projected to remain below the replacement level (2.1 children per woman) over the next five decades, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) declining from an average of 1.06 live births per woman in 2024 to 0.92 in 2026. The TFR is expected to continue declining until 2035, when it will gradually recover, reaching a maximum of close to 1.2 children per woman by 2070.

Life expectancy continues increasing

Although the effects of COVID-19 caused a decrease in life expectancy at birth between 2019 and 2021 (by 1.7 years), life expectancy is projected to continue rising: from 74.6 years in 1992 to 88.4 in 2070 (86.7 years for men and 90.2 years for women), while the figure stands at 81.8 years for 2026 (79.5 years for men and 84.3 years for women).

Net migration is expected to decrease

The projections assume a gradual reduction in net migration (the difference between immigration and emigration of people born both inside and outside the country) in the medium term, with stabilization around 2040. 

According to estimates, net migration reached a peak of 200,000 people in 2018, a figure that declined as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and restrictions on international mobility, then settled at around 140,000 people between 2021 and 2022, and it is expected to decline further after those years. 

The assumptions regarding international migration used to make the population projections will be monitored on an ongoing basis by INE in order to assess their consistency with observed trends and, if necessary, update them in future projections.

Fewer children, more older adults

The sustained decline in fertility has reduced the base of the population pyramid, a trend that is projected to continue in the long term. Thus, by 2070, people aged 65 and over are expected to exceed 40% of the country's population (42.6% of the total population), and those under 15 are expected to decrease from 29.3% of the population in 1992 and 16.3% in 2026 to 7.2% in 2070.

From 2028 onwards, there will be more people over the age of 64 than under the age of 15, at which point the aging index will exceed 100. By 2045, the population aged 65 and over will triple the population under the age of 15. If these assumptions hold true, by 2070 there will be almost 600 people aged 65 and older for every 100 people under the age of 15.

In 2035, the population of potentially active age (between 15 and 64 years old) is also expected to begin to decline, and by the end of the period there will be fewer people of working age than in 1992.

Developing and updating estimates and projections

To develop the Population Estimates and Projections, base year 2024, INE received technical advice from the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE), which is the Population Division of ECLAC, and support from the members of an advisory committee: Alejandra Abufhele Milad, Martina Yopo Díaz, David Bravo Urrutia, Rubén Castro Landman, and Fabiana Del Popolo.

This support was complemented by the work of technical committees with experts in population, fertility, mortality, and international migration, from academia, research centers, public services, and NGOs. With their complementary work, INE was able to consider a range of additional factors that statistical models are not always able to incorporate, thus ensuring that the projections are a representation based on plausible hypotheses about the future.

Given the growing availability of population information from registers and surveys, the uncertainty regarding demographic dynamics, and the importance of keeping the country's population data up to date, INE will conduct a periodic review of the estimates and projections and update them at least every five years, in line with international best practices recommended by organizations such as the United Nations.

Chile's estimates and projections at the regional level will be available during the second half of 2026.

See:
Population estimates and projections – Base year 2024 (in Spanish)